Who Can Win the 2026 World Title? Everything Pipe Has to Decide
· 4 min read
Founder / Head-First Department
Mark doesn't wait around. If there's a wave, an idea, or a bad decision to be made, he's already in it.
One event left, ten surfers still alive. Here is exactly what Dora, Medina, Picklum, Moore and the rest need at Pipe to be world champion.
One event left. Ten surfers still in it. And it all comes down to the most dangerous wave on the planet.
The 2026 Championship Tour ends at the Lexus Pipe Masters on Oahu's North Shore, December 8–20. For the first time, the world titles are decided on the season rankings, with no Finals Day: whoever leaves Pipe with the most points is world champion. Just Pipeline deciding it.
Here's who can still win it, what they each need, and who we reckon takes it home.
How the title is decided
Every CT result earns points, and only each surfer's best nine results count. The rest get thrown away.
Pipe is worth more than a normal stop: the winner banks 15,000 points, 50 percent more than a standard event. That's why someone thousands of points back can still steal it.
The sneaky part is the throwaway. A big Pipe result doesn't just add points, it replaces a surfer's weakest counting score. Someone carrying a tiny score to drop gains more from the same finish than someone with a solid one.
We already made the case for why Pipe deserves to decide it: The World Title Is Going Back to Pipeline. About Bloody Time.
The men's race: Brazil vs Brazil (vs Brazil)
Three Brazilians in the top three, and just 1,740 points between the top two.
Yago Dora: 54,950 pts, leader
The reigning world champ wears the yellow jersey into Pipe. Win the event and he's champion again, whatever anyone else does. A runner-up finish is enough too, as long as it isn't Medina who beats him in the final. Third only works if Medina goes out in the quarters and Italo loses the final.
Gabriel Medina: 53,210 pts, 1,740 back
On paper he's second. In reality he's the man to beat. Medina's lowest counting score is just 1,000 points, against Dora's 3,320, so a good Pipe result lifts him more. If he and Dora go out in the same round, Medina finishes ahead. Win it and title number four is his. Second works if Dora doesn't win, and third works if Dora misses the final.
Italo Ferreira: 49,335 pts, 5,615 back
The 2019 champ needs to win Pipe and needs help: Dora finishing no better than third, and Medina no better than fifth. A second place only gets him there if both leaders go out early.
Griffin Colapinto: 46,195 pts, 8,755 back
One path only. Griffin has to win Pipe and watch both Dora and Medina go out by the quarterfinals.
Miguel Pupo: 45,270 pts, 9,680 back
The longest shot in the men's top five. Pupo needs the win plus early exits for both Dora and Medina.
The women's race: three world champs, one title
The top three have all won a world title before, and just 545 points split the top two.
Molly Picklum: 53,695 pts, leader
The defending champ took the lead by winning Portugal, beating Caity Simmers in the final. Win Pipe and it's back-to-back titles. Second is enough as long as neither Moore nor Simmers wins the event. Third only works if Moore goes out in the quarters and Simmers finishes third.
Carissa Moore: 53,150 pts, 545 back
Five world titles, back on tour in 2026, and chasing number six on her home island. Win Pipe and she's champion. Second works if Picklum doesn't win, and third works if Picklum finishes third and Simmers doesn't win.
Caity Simmers: 49,610 pts, 4,085 back
The 2024 champ arrives hot after winning the first-ever Philippines Pro at Cloud 9, and she's won at Pipe before. A win makes her champion as long as Moore doesn't reach the final. Second only works if Moore goes out in the quarters and Picklum finishes third.
Gabriela Bryan: 46,865 pts, 6,830 back
The Hawaiian outsider needs to win Pipe, with Picklum finishing no better than third and Moore no better than fifth.
Erin Brooks: 44,745 pts, 8,950 back
The long shot. Brooks needs the win, Picklum out by the quarters, Moore out in the round of 16, and Simmers finishing no better than third.
Bomba's call
Men: Gabriel Medina. That 1,000-point throwaway is a cheat code, and nobody reads Pipe like him.
Women: too close to call between Picklum and Moore. But a Hawaiian winning a world title at Pipe would be a hell of a script.
Disagree? Tell us who you've got on Instagram at @bomba_surfmag. We'll be covering every heat from Pipe.
Points from the WSL rankings after the Philippines Pro. Title scenarios via The Inertia and Surfer. Bomb Meter ratings are our opinion, not odds. Illustrations: BOMBA.
